February Market Update

Is the market improving, or is this a dead cat bounce?

Let me begin by assuring you that no cats were harmed while writing this market update. What is a dead cat bounce and why do I bring it up? For those not familiar with the term “dead cat bounce,” it is most commonly used in financial markets when the value of an asset temporarily increases after a period of decline and then decreases again. I bring it up because many segments of our local real estate market have heated up in February, and prices appear to be increasing. Buyer activity is very strong despite the doom and gloom predictions that are so prevalent right now, and many houses are selling very quickly. Multiple, over-asking price offers are becoming more commonplace. This is taking place in the lower end of the market as well as in the higher end of the market. I recently received four offers on a townhouse in the $1,000,000 range and have heard of other agents receiving ten or more offers on recent listings up to $2,000,000. My higher-end listings in the low $3,000,000’s have had much interest, with one going into contract within a few days of being introduced to the market. In total, five homes over $2.9M have gone into contract since February 1, which Is a significant increase from previous months. Is this the new trend, or is it just a dead cat bounce? Only time will tell, but I believe it will continue because there is no end in sight for the ultra-low inventory levels of available homes, and I still think that we will see rates dip back down this year, which will further fuel the buyer demand.

Here's a snapshot of today's available inventory levels as compared to early January’s numbers shown in parentheses

Pleasanton – 43 (+1)   Dublin – 24 (-20)   Livermore – 49 (-5)

Danville – 57 (+1)   San Ramon – 39 (+1)   Alamo – 21 (+5)