January Market Update

Pleasanton & Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update – January 2026

By Elation Real Estate 

Key Takeaways

• Mortgage rates: Up from recent lows of 6.0% to approximately 6.25%. Much lower than January of 2025
• Inventory levels: Rising slowly across all Tri-Valley cities
• Days on market: Fell by an average of 5 days, signaling increased buyer activity
• Buyer activity: Strengthening across all price ranges, with multiple-offers recently on several homes
• Spring outlook: The spring market may arrive sooner than usual based on recent activity

Mortgage Rates Edge Higher

Current Rate Environment

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Approximately 6.25%
• Rates have moved up from earlier January lows near 6.0%.

What’s Driving the Increase

Broad global factors are tied tied to the increase, including:

• Uncertainty surrounding Greenland
• Crisis and volatility in the Japanese bond market
• Both are resulting in pressure on global bond yields, which directly influences U.S. mortgage rates

Despite the modest increase, rates remain well below recent highs and are still within a historically normal range.

Inventory Levels Rise Slightly

Current Active Listings (Late January 2026)

Inventory has increased modestly across all Tri-Valley cities over the past couple of weeks.

Despite these increases, overall inventory remains relatively constrained, especially when compared to typical springtime levels.

Days on Market Declining

The average days on market, which has dropped by approximately five days across the Tri-Valley is an indicator of increased buyer activity. This suggests:

• Buyers are acting more quickly when homes are priced correctly
• Well-presented properties are receiving strong early interest
• Market momentum is building despite higher mortgage rates

Buyer Activity Remains Strong

What I’m Seeing on the Ground

Buyer demand is strengthning across all price ranges. We have seen multiple-offer situations occur on a number of recent listings throughout the Tri-Valley.

Key observations include:

• Multiple offers on select properties across entry-level, mid-range, and higher price points, mostly with turn-key homes
• Increased showing activity as buyers re-engage after the holidays
• Buyers are willing to act decisively on well-priced homes

It remains to be seen whether the recent uptick in rates will meaningfully slow buyer demand, but early indicators suggest continued momentum.

Spring Selling Season May Start Early

Our volume of calls from sellers interested in bringing their homes to market over the next couple of months has increased, and we am also hearing the same feedback from other local agents.

Based on:

• Rising seller inquiries
• Improving buyer activity
• Shortening days on market

…it appears increasingly likely that this year’s busy spring selling season could begin earlier than normal.

What This Means for Sellers

• Inventory is rising, but competition remains low
• Buyers are active and writing offers now
• Homes that are priced and prepared correctly are selling more quickly
• Listing earlier may allow sellers to capture attention before spring inventory builds further

What This Means for Buyers

• Rates are higher than earlier this month, but still reasonable historically, and about .75% better than 1 year ago
• Inventory is improving, offering slightly more choice, but still limited
• Competition remains strong for desirable, well priced homes
• Prepared buyers who move quickly are reapingthe benefits of less competition